'Golden nine' steel market can rebound?

2024-09-14

Ngo-August, imakethe yensimbi yaseShayina iqhubekile nokubonisa ukwehla okushaqisayo ngenxa yezici ezifana nezinga lokushisa eliphezulu kanye nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, ukuntuleka okusobala kwesidingo esisezansi nomfula, ukungqubuzana kwezidingo ezinkulu, ukwehla kwentengo kaphethiloli oluhlaza kanye nomphumela omubi othuthukisiwe wokubuyisela emuva izindleko. .

Idatha evela ku-Lange Steel Network ibonisa ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, intengo kazwelonke yenhlanganisela yensimbi ifinyelele ku-RMB 3,532 ngethani, yehle ngo-RMB 141 ngethani, noma ngo-3.8%, uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kukaJulayi. Ngokombono wesilinganiso sanyanga zonke, ngo-Agasti, intengo kazwelonke eyinhlanganisela yensimbi yenza isilinganiso esingu-RMB 3,551/tonne, yehle ngo-RMB 275/tonne, noma ngo-7.2% kusukela ngonyaka odlule.

NgoSepthemba, izinqubomgomo ezinkulu zizosheshisa ukufika, zikhuthaze umsebenzi 'omibili omusha' kanye nezinye izindlela zizoqala ukusebenza. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokuthuthukiswa kwezimo zezulu ngo-September kulindeleke ukuthi izidingo zokuvakasha zilulame, ubudlelwano bokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo kulindeleke ukuba buthuthuke. Ngilindele ukuthi ngoSepthemba, imakethe yensimbi yaseChina izokhombisa umkhuba wokubuyela emuva!

Ngokwezibalo, kusukela ekupheleni kuka-August, 2024 uhulumeni wasekhaya waseShayina isikali esisha sokukhishwa kwezikweletu eziyisipesheli safinyelela ku-24,268.0 wamayuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-24,268.0, okubalelwa ku-62.2 wamaphesenti esamba sesamba sakho konke okukhishwayo, ukuthuthuka ngamaphesenti angu-17.7 kusukela ekupheleni kukaJulayi. Kungabonakala ukuthi ukukhishwa kwezibopho ezikhethekile okwamanje kuyashesha. Ngokwesibonelo esedlule, indawo ngokuvamile ngo-Okthoba wonyaka ukuze kuqedelwe ukukhishwa kwebhondi ekhethekile, kusukela ekuqhubekeleni phambili kokukhishwa kwebhondi yamanje, kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-Septhemba ukukhishwa kwebhondi okukhethekile kusheshiswe nakakhulu.

Njengamanje, imakethe yensimbi yasekhaya kancane kancane iguqulelwa ekubeni isizini ephezulu, ukwakhiwa kobunjiniyela bezansi komfula kuye kwashesha, kuhambisana nokukhuphuka kancane kwamanani ensimbi kwakamuva kwenza ingxenye yokukhululwa kwesidingo se-inventory, inzuzo yemakethe ibe ngcono. Ku-'golden nine', ngokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwesimo sezulu, inqubekelaphambili yokwakhiwa kwemiklamo ebalulekile izosheshisa, kulindeleke ukuthi ukwakhiwa kwensimbi kuzokhula.

Ngokombono obanzi, kunqubomgomo enkulu iyaqhubeka nokubonisa imiphumela, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka ngezinga eliphansi lokusebenza, uhlangothi lwesidingo sokusimama kokuthola kabusha, ubudlelwano bokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo kulindeleke ukuthi luthuthukise umthelela oqinile wezinto. njengemakethe yensimbi ye-'Golden Nine' kulindeleke ukuthi inyakazise izinga lokujikeleza kabusha.

Kodwa-ke, ngoSepthemba, ezinye izingqinamba emakethe ziyaqhubeka nezici zokuphinda zibuyele emuva kufanele ziqashelwe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, intengo yamafutha aluhlaza asebenza ngokubuthakathaka, ukwesekwa okwanele kwemakethe yensimbi. ngo-August, amanani entengo ye-coke ahlangabezana nezinguquko ezingu-6, ukwehla okuphelele kwama-yuan angu-300/tonne; i-iron ore, intengo emaphakathi ye-scrap nayo yehlile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-boom yokukhiqiza iqhubekile nokwehla, inkomba yokukhiqiza, inkomba yama-oda amasha, inkomba ye-oda lokuthekelisa entsha isendaweni yokuncishiswa, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqiza isidingo sensimbi kuzoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Ukwengeza, amandla okuthekelisa ensimbi awanele, inkomba yama-oda wokuthekelisa yehle kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuthi ibhekane nengcindezi ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.